. The decentralized, competitive health care system that exists now will be abandoned in favor of a nationalized system to control costs. "Health care cost growth can be controlled centrally by government action Other more interventionist forms of government action might move the issue of medical technology use from the economic sphere to the political," Chernew said.

3. The nature of medical progress will change in such a way as to reverse the historic relationship between technological progress and health care cost growth. "The theory is that no one would have to ration care and that we'll get out of this problem by use of better technology and that's obviously the best solution, but it's very hard to figure out how to make that happen,'' Chernew said.

The study co-authors include Richard A. Hirth, U-M assistant professor of health management and policy and internal medicine; Seema A. Sonnad, U-M assistant professor of surgery; A. Mark Fendrick, U-M assistant professor of health management and policy and internal medicine; and Rachel Ermann of the Alpha Center in Washington, D.C.

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Contact: Amy Reyes
amelynr@umich.edu
734-647-4411
University of Michigan
14-Aug-1998

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