Using these two models, three scenarios were simulated. The first scenario simply looked at the impact that climate change resulting from an instantaneous doubling of CO2 would have on cotton yields in the southeastern United States, including Alabama, Arkansas, northern Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, and part of Tennessee. For this scenario the fine-scale model predicted a decrease of 10% in cotton yield over the region, while the large-scale model showed a 4% increase in yields.
When the climate change resulting from CO2 doubling was combined with the potential for enhanced cotton plant growth as a result of greater carbon availability, the fine-scale model showed a 5% increase in yields, while the large-scale model predicted a 16% increase. Finally, when the first two factors of CO2 doubling and enhanced growth were combined with farming adaptations, such as planting crops earlier to take advantage of a longer growing season, the fine-scale model predicted a 26% increase, and the large-scale model predicted a 36% increase.
The research is part of a larger project that examines the impact of
different spatial scales of climate change scenarios on yields of
corn, wheat, sorghum, soybeans, and cotton in the southeastern United
States. The findings will be published next year in a speci
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Contact: Anatta
anatta@ucar.edu
303-497-8604
National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research
12-Dec-2001