Global Change Open Science Conference - Amsterdam 10-13 July Media Briefing 10 July

Forty of the worlds poorest nations are likely to suffer food production losses of more than 20% over the coming decades due to global warming, predicts a new report to be released at a conference on global change in Amsterdam next week.

The new report from IIASA (the International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis), Global Agro-ecological Assessment for Agriculture in the 21st Century, assesses future food production capabilities under different climate change scenarios for all countries of the world.

The report pinpoints the hot spots where productivity is most likely to be affected by projected climate change. Not surprisingly, the world's 40 poorest nations, with a third of the current global population and over a half of the undernourished people in the world, are likely to be hardest hit, with more than half of the countries in sub-Saharan Africa, India, Bangladesh and Brazil particularly vulnerable.

While most developed nations are likely to experience moderate to large increases in crop productivity, some (including Belgium, the Netherlands, the UK and Australia) could experience food production losses, says the report.

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Contact: Dr Susannah Eliott
Susannah@igbp.kva.se
468-673-9556
International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme
10-Jul-2001