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Droughts worse than the 1930's likely in the 21st century

ing. "Our concern is that human industrialization could be a trigger for extreme climate changes on a global scale in the future, " Cumming says.

Researchers do know that if a global climate shift occurred - whether natural or human-induced - it would be overwhelming and could even precipitate large-scale migrations. The study reveals a direct correlation between scarce water-resources in Kenya during the last millennium and economic, political and social devastation.

Perhaps most alarming is the revelation that East Africa has enjoyed a relatively high level of water availability during the past 800 years (with three episodes of water shortages much more severe than the 1930's Dust Bowl). Consequently, development and population growth during the past centuries increased during the periods of abundant water resources. "So, if an extreme climate changes does occur in the future it could create widespread devastation," says Cumming.


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Contact: Nancy Marrello
marrello@post.queensu.ca
613-533-6000 x 74040
Queen's University
9-Feb-2000


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