Emory researchers develop model to track the evolution of emerging infectiou...( that factors such as ecological change...)

that factors, such as ecological changes, that increase the basic reproductive number of the potential pathogen (but remaining below one and not at a level sufficient to cause an epidemic) can still greatly increase the length of the random chains of disease transmission. These long transmission chains provide opportunity for the pathogen to adapt to human hosts, and subsequently for the disease to emerge and spread.

"The mathematical model we developed shows that transmission rates of a new pathogen can remain well below an epidemic level, but a disease can still potentially break out dramatically as new strains evolve and become better adapted for human transmission," Regoes says.

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Contact: Beverly Clark
bclark2@emory.edu
404-712-8780
Emory University Health Sciences Center
10-Dec-2003

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