It became immediately clear that this mathematical approach would take us in the direction we needed, Rossignol said. It gives us a way to describe complex natural populations in more realistic terms, consider indirect interactions and really provide a much more accurate view of how natural systems will work. Well be far more accurate with our predictions and can use this approach in the new field of adaptive management, improving our natural resource management approaches as we go.
The OSU scientists have fine-tuned this approach in continued research and outlined it in their new publication for other scientists to use in a comparatively simple, well-defined system.
Were now bridging the world of biology and mathematics in a way that will let people approach complex problems using descriptive, qualitative information, Li said. It complements data-hungry mathematical models by identifying key interactions to focus on when gathering quantitative data from a complex system. This reduces the need for complex, expensive and time-consuming experiments.
With this approach, I can now do a computation in minutes that used to take forever. Id literally write equations by hand on 20 feet of rolled-out butcher paper and hope I didnt make a mistake along the way. The technique is also reliable, Li said. Using only text descriptions, these qualitative models have duplicated the predictions of studies done with classical ecological experiments.
In one recent usage, an OSU graduate student used this system to study the stability of an Oregon sea urchin fishery and answer questions about the long-term value of reserves. This would have been almost impossible with real-world experiments, but after the computer ran through 12 million mathematical combinations of possible outcomes, the scientists had the
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Contact: Phillippe Rossignol
phil.rossignol@orst.edu
541-737-5509
Oregon State University
9-May-2003