HOME >> BIOLOGY >> NEWS
Mathematical rule said to be widely and wrongly used to forecast future beach erosion

DURHAM, N.C. -- A decades-old mathematical model is being inappropriately used in at least 26 nations to make potentially costly predictions about how shorelines will retreat in response to rising sea levels, two coastal scientists contended in the Friday, March 19, 2004, issue of the research journal Science.

"Models can be a hazard to society, and this is certainly an example of such," wrote Orrin Pilkey of Duke University's Nicholas School of the Environment and Earth Sciences, and J. Andrew Cooper of the Coastal Research Group at the University of Ulster in Northern Ireland, in a Perspectives commentary.

The mathematical equation, called the Bruun rule, "is a 'one model fits all' approach unsuitable in a highly complex natural environment with large spatial variations in shoreline retreat," the two authors added. "Even under ideal conditions ... the rule has never been credibly shown to provide accurate predictions."

Pilkey, a retired geology professor who still directs Duke's Program for the Study of Developed Shorelines, said in an interview that the rule was developed in the 1960s by Per Bruun, a Danish civil engineer who was long active in Florida beach preservation projects.

According to Pilkey, the Bruun rule stipulates that it is the slope of the "shoreface" -- the broad front of a beach extending down into the water to a depth of about 10 yards -- that controls how and how quickly a beach "erodes," meaning how it retreats landward as sea level rises.

"There is no relationship between the shoreface slope and the rate of erosion," he said. "We know that each shoreline is different, and one model cannot possibly explain every shoreface. It's ludicrous. And yet it's being defended by a number of people."

Their commentary also said the Bruun rule is intended "to be deployed only under a limited range of environmental circumstances (such as uniform sandy shorefaces with no rock or mud outcrops). Unfort
'"/>

Contact: Monte Basgall
monte.basgall@duke.edu
919-681-8057
Duke University
18-Mar-2004


Page: 1 2 3

Related biology news :

1. Applied Mathematical Models in Human Physiology
2. Mathematical modeling predicts cellular communication
3. Mathematical models reveal molten and glassy states of RNA
4. Mathematical prediction of on-off switches in cell division proven
5. Mathematical model provides new tool to assess mail-borne spread of anthrax
6. Mathematical analysis could aid flu vaccine selection
7. New Mathematical Model Could Help Predict Health Of Offshore Areas Where Rivers Enter The Sea
8. Penn engineers develop fuel cell that uses liquid diesel, the first such device to run on a widely available fuel
9. Report: Proteins can be engineered as widely adaptable bioelectronic sensors
10. UF research suggests widely used models may under predict pollution
11. Ginkgo herbal supplements vary widely in content

Post Your Comments:
(Date:4/23/2014)... conclusive evidence that the source of a unique rhythmic ... called the "bio-duck," is the Antarctic minke whale ( ... personnel in the 1960s who thought it sounded like ... various locations in the Southern Ocean, but its source ... 2013, an international team of researchers deployed acoustic tags ...
(Date:4/23/2014)... the likelihood of an accurate group decision increases with ... when a collective faces a variety of factors ... University researchers report that smaller groups actually tend to ... excessively focused on only certain pieces of information. , ... known about collective intelligence, or the "wisdom of crowds," ...
(Date:4/23/2014)... The shale gas boom has transformed the energy ... locations, it could cause conflict among the energy ... resources, say researchers. They add that degraded water ... adequate safeguards. The feature article appears in the ... , Meagan S. Mauter and colleagues point out ...
Breaking Biology News(10 mins):Scientists identify source of mysterious sound in the Southern Ocean 2Scientists identify source of mysterious sound in the Southern Ocean 3Too many chefs: Smaller groups exhibit more accurate decision-making 2Too many chefs: Smaller groups exhibit more accurate decision-making 3How to avoid water wars between 'fracking' industry and residents 2
(Date:1/15/2014)... Biotechnology Company, Limited ("TaiGen") today announced that they have ... pharmaceutical company, to develop and commercialize nemonoxacin (Taigexyn ® ... Turkey and other members of ... for the treatment of bacterial infections including those caused ...
(Date:1/14/2014)... Carahsoft and CDS Federal Services have ... at 2pm EST (11am PST), “Natural Language Processing: Converting ... how technology can turn raw, heterogeneous data into actionable ... The online webinar will last approximately one hour. , ...
(Date:1/14/2014)... Jan. 14, 2014  3D Communications, a leading provider of strategic communications ... and media events in the United States ... Virginia Cox , JD, is returning to the firm,s ... re-joins 3D after more than two years of service as ...
(Date:1/14/2014)... NY (PRWEB) January 14, 2014 EquitiesIQ, ... Alliqua, Inc. (OTCQB: ALQA). Alliqua is an emerging biomedical ... serve the wound care market. , Free report download: ... restructured with a seasoned management team and Board, which ...
Breaking Biology Technology:TaiGen Biotechnology Signed Exclusive License Agreement with R-Pharm for Nemonoxacin (Taigexyn(R)) 2TaiGen Biotechnology Signed Exclusive License Agreement with R-Pharm for Nemonoxacin (Taigexyn(R)) 3TaiGen Biotechnology Signed Exclusive License Agreement with R-Pharm for Nemonoxacin (Taigexyn(R)) 4Webcast - Natural Language Processing: Converting Raw Data into Actionable Knowledge – Hosted by Carahsoft and CDS Federal Services 2Former FDA Associate Commissioner Returns To 3D Communications 2EquitiesIQ Initiates Coverage of Alliqua, Inc. 2EquitiesIQ Initiates Coverage of Alliqua, Inc. 3
Cached News: