HOME >> BIOLOGY >> NEWS
Mathematical rule said to be widely and wrongly used to forecast future beach erosion

DURHAM, N.C. -- A decades-old mathematical model is being inappropriately used in at least 26 nations to make potentially costly predictions about how shorelines will retreat in response to rising sea levels, two coastal scientists contended in the Friday, March 19, 2004, issue of the research journal Science.

"Models can be a hazard to society, and this is certainly an example of such," wrote Orrin Pilkey of Duke University's Nicholas School of the Environment and Earth Sciences, and J. Andrew Cooper of the Coastal Research Group at the University of Ulster in Northern Ireland, in a Perspectives commentary.

The mathematical equation, called the Bruun rule, "is a 'one model fits all' approach unsuitable in a highly complex natural environment with large spatial variations in shoreline retreat," the two authors added. "Even under ideal conditions ... the rule has never been credibly shown to provide accurate predictions."

Pilkey, a retired geology professor who still directs Duke's Program for the Study of Developed Shorelines, said in an interview that the rule was developed in the 1960s by Per Bruun, a Danish civil engineer who was long active in Florida beach preservation projects.

According to Pilkey, the Bruun rule stipulates that it is the slope of the "shoreface" -- the broad front of a beach extending down into the water to a depth of about 10 yards -- that controls how and how quickly a beach "erodes," meaning how it retreats landward as sea level rises.

"There is no relationship between the shoreface slope and the rate of erosion," he said. "We know that each shoreline is different, and one model cannot possibly explain every shoreface. It's ludicrous. And yet it's being defended by a number of people."

Their commentary also said the Bruun rule is intended "to be deployed only under a limited range of environmental circumstances (such as uniform sandy shorefaces with no rock or mud outcrops). Unfort
'"/>

Contact: Monte Basgall
monte.basgall@duke.edu
919-681-8057
Duke University
18-Mar-2004


Page: 1 2 3

Related biology news :

1. Applied Mathematical Models in Human Physiology
2. Mathematical modeling predicts cellular communication
3. Mathematical models reveal molten and glassy states of RNA
4. Mathematical prediction of on-off switches in cell division proven
5. Mathematical model provides new tool to assess mail-borne spread of anthrax
6. Mathematical analysis could aid flu vaccine selection
7. New Mathematical Model Could Help Predict Health Of Offshore Areas Where Rivers Enter The Sea
8. Penn engineers develop fuel cell that uses liquid diesel, the first such device to run on a widely available fuel
9. Report: Proteins can be engineered as widely adaptable bioelectronic sensors
10. UF research suggests widely used models may under predict pollution
11. Ginkgo herbal supplements vary widely in content

Post Your Comments:
*Name:
*Comment:
*Email:


(Date:4/11/2017)... Fla. , April 11, 2017 ... and secure authentication solutions, today announced that it ... Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) to develop ... Thor program. "Innovation has been a ... IARPA,s Thor program will allow us to innovate ...
(Date:4/6/2017)... Forecasts by Product Type (EAC), ... End-Use (Transportation & Logistics, Government & Public Sector, Utilities ... Generation Facility, Nuclear Power), Industrial, Retail, Business Organisation (BFSI), ... you looking for a definitive report on the $27.9bn ... ...
(Date:4/4/2017)... , April 4, 2017   EyeLock LLC ... announced that the United States Patent and Trademark Office ... broadly covers the linking of an iris image with ... transaction) and represents the company,s 45 th issued ... patent is very timely given the multi-modal biometric capabilities ...
Breaking Biology News(10 mins):
(Date:8/15/2017)... ... August 15, 2017 , ... Kenall, a leader in sealed ... stay tightly sealed and perform efficiently for years. The downlights are ideal for ... aren't enough, such as: hospitals; behavioral health facilities; cleanrooms; containment areas; food and ...
(Date:8/14/2017)... , ... August 14, 2017 , ... ... and performing antibodies. Key researchers in the antibody community have recently come together ... consistency for antibodies in the laboratory. , The team at ...
(Date:8/11/2017)... ... , ... A staple in the community for more than 60 years, Bill ... including a new digital marketing strategy and updated logo. , As part of the ... with the South Texas Blood & Tissue Center for the month of August. ...
(Date:8/10/2017)... ... August 09, 2017 , ... ... next week-- as students. From August 14th through the 16th, the University City ... debuted in the summer of 2016, provides Philadelphia-based middle school educators an opportunity ...
Breaking Biology Technology:
Cached News: