The geologists' research couldn't be more timely. "The last big group of storms was you guessed it almost 3,000 years ago," says Paul Bierman, co-author of "Millennial-scale storminess variability in the northeastern United States during the Holocene epoch" and UVM professor of geology. With funding from the National Science Foundation, Bierman enlisted a team of students to collect and study core samples from 21 lakes in Vermont and New York's Adirondacks over four years. The regional storm and flood patterns they were able to establish are red flags to emergency planners, who rely on early detection to quickly evacuate people to higher ground when waters rise.
There was no time for warnings, preparations or escape 75 years ago, when record rainfall overflowed rivers and partially submerged several Vermont towns, killing 55 people and destroying $30 million in property. But geologist Anders Noren says the 1927 flood was merely a drop in the bucket compared to earlier and future hydrologic hassles. "If this cycle continues, the frequency and severity of intense rainstorms that can cause massive flooding should continue to increase for the next several hundred years," Noren says. The impact of human activity, especially the emission of atmospheric greenhouse gases, could speed up storm cycles, he says.