HOME >> BIOLOGY >> NEWS
Physics gravity model applicable to disease spread

Tracking the spread of new or reemergent diseases like SARS or smallpox is essential in controlling disease epidemics, but horse-and-buggy concepts of how diseases spread have been supplanted by 21st-century realities.

"In the past, one expected the spread of disease to be based on distance, and the closest town would be the location of the next outbreak," says Dr. Ottar Bjornstad, assistant professor of entomology and biology. "Today, it is very different. Even excluding air transportation, someone like me is more likely to go to New York City than Lewistown, Pa., even though Lewistown is closer to where I live."

Borrowing from physics and transportation theory, the researchers are using an empirical gravity model along with the distance-based models to define a network of spatial spread of contagious disease.

"We are combining the basic theory of epidemiology with models from sociology and transportation theory to see what networks might look like," Bjornstad told attendees today (Aug. 5) at the annual meeting of the Ecological Society of America. Bjornstad is working with Bryan T. Grenfell and Xia Yingcun, University of Cambridge, U.K.

Cities are like planets -- the larger they are, the more attractive they are, but the degree of attraction decreases with distance. From Central Pennsylvania, New York City or Philadelphia would be more an attractive destination than Chicago.

To test their model, the researchers used British data on the childhood disease measles because British records dating from 1940 to today are relatively complete. The records show, week-by-week and community-by-community, the spread of measles outbreaks. The U.K. has about 1,000 cities and 450 rural areas that report and outbreaks occur about every two years.

Measles belongs to an ecological class of disease that includes the traditional childhood illnesses mumps, rubella, chickenpox, whooping cough that are extremely contagious, but short-lived in t
'"/>

Contact: A'ndrea Elyse Messer
aem1@psu.edu
814-865-9481
Penn State
5-Aug-2004


Page: 1 2 3

Related biology news :

1. Physics tip sheet #42
2. Physics tip sheet #41 - April 5, 2004
3. Physics tip sheet #39 - Nov. 17, 2003
4. Physics tip sheet #37
5. Physics tip sheet #36 - July 30, 2003
6. Physics tip sheet #34 - April 1, 2003
7. Physics tip sheet #33 March 28, 2003
8. Physics tip sheet #30 - January 9, 2003
9. Physics tip sheet #29 October 23, 2002
10. Physics tip sheet #21 July 10, 2002
11. Physics tip sheet #20 July 3, 2002

Post Your Comments:
*Name:
*Comment:
*Email:


(Date:3/29/2019)... ... ... In the development of biosimilars, the broad definition of the similarity concept in ... several manufacturers have been successful and numerous follow-on biologics are approved in the US ... analytical similarity is achieved in biosimilars based on recently approved products in the US. ...
(Date:3/27/2019)... ATLANTA (PRWEB) , ... March 26, 2019 , ... ... firm Greenberg Traurig, LLP , was a panelist at the National Academy of ... at NAS’ Keck Center. Holden, a member of the firm’s award-winning Pharmaceutical, Medical ...
(Date:3/25/2019)... ... March 25, 2019 , ... Researchers have found multiple applications ... it came into use by the scientific community. Keck Graduate Institute (KGI) Assistant ... to combine the power of CRISPR’s nucleic acid targeting with the ultra sensitivity ...
Breaking Biology News(10 mins):
(Date:3/19/2019)... ... March 19, 2019 , ... ... (Konica Minolta) today announced the formation of their inaugural Scientific Advisory Board. ... precision medicine that takes into account individual variability in genes, environment, and lifestyle ...
(Date:3/19/2019)... ... March 19, 2019 , ... ... largest hospital in Israel and the Middle East region, and Swiss-based CDMO ... Cocoon™ manufacturing platform. The partnership will enable Sheba to vastly streamline its ...
(Date:3/18/2019)... ... March 18, 2019 , ... For more than 15 years, USDM ... allow life science companies to easily comply with FDA 21 CFR Part 11 and ... a managed service delivering end-to-end GxP compliance from vendor audit through ongoing validation maintenance, ...
(Date:3/14/2019)... (PRWEB) , ... March 14, 2019 , ... ... for their facility in Oklahoma City, OK. EyeCRO joins the Department of Veterans ... Oklahoma Health Sciences Center as the fifth institution in Oklahoma to receive this ...
Breaking Biology Technology:
Cached News: