The supercomputer will use the mathematically based wildfire model to continuously send maps and forecasted fire locations to the front lines in real time, allowing a fire manager to see minute-by-minute predictions or anticipate where fire growth will occur along the fire line. The system may also allow fire managers to plan the most effective and efficient actions, for example by foreseeing situations where weather, the terrain, fuels, and winds created by the fire would combine to create a fire that would grow rapidly unless more resources are used to stop it early on. The system might also be used to identify situations where wildfires can be allowed to spread harmlessly under controlled conditions for hazardous fuel reduction and natural resource benefits. The efforts of the team will eventually be put to the test. In four years, they are scheduled to take the technology to a real wildfire.
"In the past, running a model on a computer meant starting a simulation and then waiting for the results. It is time to change the way scientific modeling is done. In a movie, you may see a computer on a starship, and the computer takes into consideration new information as soon as it comes," Mandel said. "This is how computers work in the imagination of movie directors, and this is how people expect computers should work. Our project will help make this a reality."
Wildland fires are a devastating force driven by complex phenomena that are not well understood. Scientists at NCAR have a history of coupling numerical regional weather simulations with fire-spread models to advance the understanding of wildfires.
According to NCAR scientist Janice Coen, "There are many things about wildfires that aren't understood scientifically. There are also many technological challenges involved in simulating phenomena that change very r
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Contact: Anatta
anatta@ucar.edu
303-497-8604
National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research
15-Apr-2004