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Scientists, lawyers discuss decision-making amid uncertainty

false dichotomies "end of the world" and "good for you" viewpoints that represent the lowest probability cases. In these situations, "the media and political debates are a shrill sideshow" that steal attention from the scientific consensus, he says.

But Schneider doesn't just point his finger at the media. "Scientists invite such trouble unwittingly," he writes in a 2002 American Scientist article. "We often project the appearance of being locked in unending debate." To counteract this tendency, Schneider encourages scientists to present seminars that "stress what is indeed well established before we lapse into our sparring about fine points on the cutting edge."

Good science reporters are able to distinguish established results from dubious fringe theories, Schneider says, by examining consensus statements put out by groups such as the National Research Council and the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), for which he is a coordinating lead author. Part of Schneider's presentation will focus on the IPCC as a model for effective interdisciplinary scientific assessment.

Scientist-advocate

While many scientists shun opportunities to popularize their research, insisting they will remain neutral, Schneider offers living proof that the "scientist-advocate" is not an oxymoron. "Among the positions one can take is being an advocate of science itself," he says, "in which one argues for a rational world view and has faith that science has something constructive to contribute to decision making for the future."

Schneider first became interested in climate issues after attending a seminar on global warming while he was completing his doctorate in mechanical engineering and plasma physics at Columbia University in 1971. Two years later, as a postdoctoral fellow studying the climatic role of greenhouse gases and suspended particulate material at NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies, Schneider was
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Contact: Mark Shwartz
mshwartz@stanford.edu
831-915-0088
Stanford University
15-Feb-2004


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