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Two billion vulnerable to floods by 2050; number expected to double or more in two generations

e living in flood-prone areas will roughly double due to:

  • more extreme weather systems that accompany global climate change,
  • rising sea levels; and
  • continuing deforestation, especially in mountain regions.

    It also predicts that pressure to live and work in flood-prone areas, which typically feature attractive rich soils, abundant water supplies and ease of transport, will increase as the world's population continues spiraling upward to a projected 10 billion by 2050.

    The warning was issued as UNU officially opens a new institute in Bonn, Germany June 15 dedicated to study of the Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS), strengthening the capacity of governments to respond to natural disasters, and establishing sustainable land management practices.

    "The growing frequency and magnitude of extreme environmental events worldwide has intensified research interest in natural disasters as well as regional vulnerability and response capabilities," says Dr. Janos Bogardi, founding director of UNU-EHS.

    "In the warmer, wetter world predicted by science today, the northern part of the Northern Hemisphere will likely see more storms while some continental areas might have drier summers and more risk of drought. Sea levels could rise, fed in part by melt-water from glaciers and ice caps. Along with this, extreme high-water levels may occur with increasing frequency. Higher sea levels could inundate small islands, flood coastal lowlands, and erode sand dunes.

    Upgrade monitoring of extreme events

    "Most urgently needed to adapt to the growing risk of flood disasters is greater global capacity to monitor and forecast extreme events," Dr. Bogardi says. "Armed with better information, superior early warning systems and infrastructure can be installed, and new planning strategies devised."

    "It is also necessary to ensure that increasingly freakish
    '"/>



  • Contact: Terry Collins
    collins1@sympatico.ca
    416-538-8712
    United Nations University
    13-Jun-2004


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