Two billion vulnerable to floods by 2050; number expected to double or more in two g...( climate variability and the gradual fo...)

There needs to be a shift in the international mindset from reaction and charity to anticipation and preemption, Dr. Bogardi adds. Countries are typically generous with post-disaster relief but less so when it comes to pre-disaster preparedness, spending $100 in relief for every $1 in preparedness.

Recent studies have also shown the cost of constructing disaster-resistant buildings adds only 2 to 12 per cent on average to the final costs. Meanwhile forecasting and warning systems commonly show a cost-benefit ratio of 10 or 15 to 1.

Mortality is often highest in rural areas of poor countries where disaster preparedness and early warning is virtually non-existent and where health coverage is usually weak or not easily accessible. In such areas, people are less likely to evacuate from flood prone areas and in some cases fear leaving and potentially losing their possessions or their property claim.

"The thousands of tragic casualties from flooding and Haiti and the Dominican Republic in recent weeks underline the extreme vulnerability of developing countries," Dr. Bogardi said. "While economic losses due to natural disasters destroy resources equivalent to 2% of GDP in developed countries, in developing countries, the proportion can reach as high as 13% of GDP. Unsustainable practices and the ever increasing disasters they trigger prevent people to break through the brutal cycle of poverty."

Scientists say warming sea temperatures may increase the number of cyclones and storm surges reaching shore. Storm surges can be just as lethal as the weather systems that spawn them "walls of water" 60 to 80 kilometres across and 2 to 5 metres high that can pour in from the sea with immense force, washing away everything in their path. The most massive storm surge in recent times c
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Contact: Terry Collins
collins1@sympatico.ca
416-538-8712
United Nations University
13-Jun-2004