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US scientist testifies for prosecution in Milosevic trial

between the patterns of refugee flow and killings," according to Ball's report to the tribunal.

"The structure of the patterns in both refugee flow and killings over the time period in question is the key component for the findings of the present study...The correlated, nearly simultaneous variations in the social phenomena being measured in time and location strongly suggest a common, systematic cause of which the patterns are a result."

Ball and his co-authors, Wendy Betts, Fritz Scheuren, Jana Dudukovich and Jana Asher, tested the data against what they knew about patterns of KLA activity and NATO airstrikes, and found that NATO and the KLA increased their activities after clear spikes in the number of killings and level of refugee flows, and not before. In contrast, the study's authors note that the only time there was "a drastic reduction in killings and refugee movement" came during a ceasefire that the Yugoslav government called to coincide with the celebration of the Orthodox Easter.


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Contact: Daniel Kane
dkane@aaas.org
American Association for the Advancement of Science
14-Mar-2002


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