For example, he added, "Our analysis found that under the higher emissions scenario, parts of New York are projected to reach temperatures by late century that would reduce milk production up to 15 percent during summer months." Although farmers can better cool dairy barns, the extra costs involved could squeeze out small family farmers.

The apple industry also could be threatened as winters become so warm that the "winter chilling" period required for maximum flowering and yield is no longer met. "With a lower emissions scenario, apple and other affected tree fruit crop industries would have several more decades to adapt, possibly switching to different varieties or crops," he said.

Of perhaps greatest concern in the next few decades, he stressed, is increased pressure from aggressive, invasive insect, disease and weed pests. Many of the most aggressive weeds, research shows, grow faster with more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

"On top of this, our study found that, at the higher emissions scenario, weed species currently constrained to southern states by our cold winter temperatures could encroach throughout the southern half of New York by mid-century," said Wolfe.

His recommendations to farmers and gardeners included plowing and tilling less to reduce the burn off of stored soil carbon that releases carbon dioxide into the atmosphere and using less nitrogen fertilizer, which produces nitrous oxide, a potent greenhouse gas.

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Contact: Blaine Friedlander
bpf2@cornell.edu
607-254-8093
Cornell University News Service
11-Jul-2007