"That event was so far out of the normal climate range that one analysis pegs it as a signal of climate change," Patz explains. "So what are we going to be adapting to? It won't be creeping temperatures. What we may see is an increased frequency of these extreme events."
Moreover, as temperature regimes change, weather patterns will be altered and increased rainfall will facilitate the spread of waterborne and food-borne disease. And increased local rainfall also will make life easier for the insects and animals that carry some human diseases.
One strategy to mitigate future climate-related health problems, according to Patz, would be to develop and use climate forecasts and warning systems to avert disease and adverse health outcomes.
Such tools are already coming into play. Strong El Nino events, for example, tend to trigger heavier rainfall in the American southwest, setting the stage for rodent population booms and increased risk of exposure to hanta virus, a sometimes deadly disease transmitted through rodent urine and droppings.
Such events can be predicted with confidence, and if higher risk is forecast, people can prepare by mouse-proofing their homes and taking other measures to minimize contact with the source of a serious disease.
"The key will be early detection, warning and responding to threats," Patz says.
In urban areas, steps are already being taken to mitigate the effects of warmer climate and the "heat island" effect created by cities. Rooftop gardens are being encouraged by, among others, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and creating more reflective surfaces by painting rooftops white and using reflective materials in paving projects may reduce overall warming.
It will be important, says Patz, to avoid maladaptation. Increased use of air cond
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Contact: Jonathan Patz
patz@wisc.edu
608-262-4775
University of Wisconsin-Madison
20-Feb-2005