HOME >> BIOLOGY >> NEWS
Predicting catastrophic transitions

Complex systems, such as the earths climate, coral reefs, oceans, and social-economic systems, often react in a surprising way to gradual change. If conditions change gradually, the system may seem to respond little, until a critical tipping point is reached, after which the system may collapse completely. After such collapse, the original state of the system is notoriously hard to restore. Up till now, managers have found it very hard to predict such catastrophic transition without a thorough knowledge of the underlying mechanisms. Egbert van Nes and Marten Scheffer analyzed various models and came to the conclusion that there is a simpler way to predict a catastrophic transition. In their work, which appears in the June issue of The American Naturalist, they show that, after small disturbances, the system will recover much slower if a collapse is near. They argue that such slower recovery can serve as an early warning signal for upcoming shifts. In practice the recovery rate can be determined from small experiments or by analyzing the natural variations in a time series.


'"/>

Contact: Patricia Morse
pmorse@press.uchicago.edu
773-702-0446
University of Chicago Press Journals
22-May-2007


Page: 1

Related biology news :

1. Every moment counts: Predicting treatment responses earlier for brain tumor patients
2. Predicting PET imagings future: Diagnosing and treating diseases ASAP
3. Predicting species abundance in the face of habitat loss
4. Predicting success
5. Predicting chemotherapy outcome
6. Predicting the future: Mirror neurons reflect the intentions of others
7. Predicting infection risk of mosquito-borne disease
8. Virus has catastrophic affect on red squirrels, research shows
9. American and Dutch experts to discuss risk of catastrophic levee failure in California
10. Scientists find evidence of catastrophic sand avalanches, sea level changes in Gulf of Mexico
11. Scripps scientists find potential for catastrophic shifts in Pacific ecosystems

Post Your Comments:
*Name:
*Comment:
*Email:


(Date:2/24/2017)... -- EyeLock LLC, a leader of iris-based identity authentication ... solution on the latest Qualcomm® Snapdragon™ 835 mobile ... Congress 2017 (February 27 – March 2, ... Stand 3E10. The Snapdragon 835 ... combination of hardware, software and biometrics technologies ...
(Date:2/21/2017)... , February 21, 2017 ... 70 Millionen US-Dollar wachsen. Nach einem Gespräch mit mehr als ... einige Hindernisse zu überwinden gilt, um diese Prognose zu ... ... anderem die Mobilisierung der finanziellen Mittel für die Biobank, ...
(Date:2/13/2017)... FRANCISCO , Feb. 13, 2017  RSA ... centralized platform that is designed to enhance fraud ... latest release in the RSA Fraud & Risk ... enable organizations to leverage additional insights from internal ... tools to better protect their customers from targeted ...
Breaking Biology News(10 mins):
(Date:3/24/2017)... , March 24, 2017  Infectex Ltd., a ... today announced positive results of a Phase 2b-3 clinical ... regimen in patients with multidrug-resistant pulmonary tuberculosis (MDR-TB). SQ109 ... at Sequella, Inc. ( USA ) and ... A total of 140 patients were enrolled in a ...
(Date:3/24/2017)... March 24, 2017 Agenus Inc. (NASDAQ: AGEN), ... antibodies and cancer vaccines, today announced participation at the ...  Annual William Blair and Maidstone Life Sciences conference "Cancer ... in New York, NY . Agenus ... 29 at 9:40 am: Robert B. Stein , ...
(Date:3/23/2017)... , March 23, 2017  SeraCare ... to global in vitro diagnostics manufacturers and ... the industry,s first multiplexed Inherited Cancer ... testing by next-generation sequencing (NGS). The Seraseq™ ... developed with input from industry experts to ...
(Date:3/23/2017)... NetworkNewsWire Editorial Coverage  ... Cancer remains one of the world,s ... systems, in terms of costs and resources. However, as the ... of innovative and efficient therapies that demonstrate higher chances of ... cancer treatments, a growing number of patients receiving immuno-oncology therapies ...
Breaking Biology Technology:
Cached News: