HOME >> BIOLOGY >> NEWS
Predicting catastrophic transitions

Complex systems, such as the earths climate, coral reefs, oceans, and social-economic systems, often react in a surprising way to gradual change. If conditions change gradually, the system may seem to respond little, until a critical tipping point is reached, after which the system may collapse completely. After such collapse, the original state of the system is notoriously hard to restore. Up till now, managers have found it very hard to predict such catastrophic transition without a thorough knowledge of the underlying mechanisms. Egbert van Nes and Marten Scheffer analyzed various models and came to the conclusion that there is a simpler way to predict a catastrophic transition. In their work, which appears in the June issue of The American Naturalist, they show that, after small disturbances, the system will recover much slower if a collapse is near. They argue that such slower recovery can serve as an early warning signal for upcoming shifts. In practice the recovery rate can be determined from small experiments or by analyzing the natural variations in a time series.


'"/>

Contact: Patricia Morse
pmorse@press.uchicago.edu
773-702-0446
University of Chicago Press Journals
22-May-2007


Page: 1

Related biology news :

1. Every moment counts: Predicting treatment responses earlier for brain tumor patients
2. Predicting PET imagings future: Diagnosing and treating diseases ASAP
3. Predicting species abundance in the face of habitat loss
4. Predicting success
5. Predicting chemotherapy outcome
6. Predicting the future: Mirror neurons reflect the intentions of others
7. Predicting infection risk of mosquito-borne disease
8. Virus has catastrophic affect on red squirrels, research shows
9. American and Dutch experts to discuss risk of catastrophic levee failure in California
10. Scientists find evidence of catastrophic sand avalanches, sea level changes in Gulf of Mexico
11. Scripps scientists find potential for catastrophic shifts in Pacific ecosystems

Post Your Comments:
*Name:
*Comment:
*Email:
TAG: Predicting catastrophic transitions

(Date:4/14/2015)... NXT-ID, Inc. (NASDAQ: NXTD ) ("NXT-ID" ... the growing mobile commerce market, announces that its Wocket® ... York Design Awards under the category  ,Product Design – ... Awards are part of a global multi-disciplinary awards program. ... the marketplace, industry and judging panel. Winners will be ...
(Date:4/13/2015)... a leading cloud-based consumer engagement platform that provides trusted ... communities around health and wellness, announced today the launching ... The ... vehicle to receive validated health information from consumers. ... will allow higi,s trusted partners, on a user opt-in ...
(Date:4/9/2015)... , April 9, 2015 Synaptics Inc. (NASDAQ: ... solutions, announced today that it will report financial results ... April 23, 2015, after the close of market. The ... and investors at 2:00 p.m. PT (5:00 p.m. ET), ... To participate on the live call, analysts and ...
Breaking Biology News(10 mins):NXT-ID's Wocket Smart Wallet Nominated for 2015 New York Design Awards in 'Product Design- Technology' 2NXT-ID's Wocket Smart Wallet Nominated for 2015 New York Design Awards in 'Product Design- Technology' 3higi Launches Seamless Access to HIPAA-Compliant Health Outcomes and Activity Data 2higi Launches Seamless Access to HIPAA-Compliant Health Outcomes and Activity Data 3Synaptics to Report Third Quarter Results on April 23 2
(Date:4/21/2015)... ENGLEWOOD, Colo. , April 21, 2015 ... details for a scheduled investor call on Thursday, April ... in using the instructions as follows: ... toll-free number: (844) 789-4877 International toll number: (925) ... emailed in advance to Tina Amirkiai , ...
(Date:4/21/2015)... , April 21, 2015  Tute Genomics, a leading ... of Josh Forsythe as VP of Marketing. Mr. ... witnessed a significant expansion in its commercial operations over the ... " Josh Forsythe is a tremendous addition ... MD MBA, CEO of Tute Genomics. "Josh,s vast experience commercializing ...
(Date:4/21/2015)... April 21, 2015 PRC Clinical, ... and exhibit at the ACRP 2015 Global Conference and ... Utah. The Association of Clinical Research Professionals (ACRP) Global ... conference solely focused on the conduct of clinical trials. ... development, and widely recognized industry certifications. , The ...
(Date:4/21/2015)... Cleveleys (UK) (PRWEB) April 21, 2015 ... technology and its clinical applications will be ... Participants include engineers, scientists, regulators and clinicians ... The meeting is sponsored by Invibio Biomaterial ... polymer-based biomaterials, a specialist in manufacturing and ...
Breaking Biology Technology:Ampio Announces Investor Call on Thursday, April 23, 4:30 p.m. ET 2Tute Genomics Continues Expansion of Genomic Medicine Commercial Operations; Appoints Josh Forsythe as New VP of Marketing 2Tute Genomics Continues Expansion of Genomic Medicine Commercial Operations; Appoints Josh Forsythe as New VP of Marketing 3Tute Genomics Continues Expansion of Genomic Medicine Commercial Operations; Appoints Josh Forsythe as New VP of Marketing 4PRC Clinical Sponsors The ACRP 2015 Global Conference And Meets Biotech Companies in the Salt Lake City Area. 22nd International PEEK Meeting: Invibio Biomaterial Solutions spearheads medical research for implantable PEEK polymer devices 22nd International PEEK Meeting: Invibio Biomaterial Solutions spearheads medical research for implantable PEEK polymer devices 3
Cached News: