HOME >> BIOLOGY >> NEWS
Predicting catastrophic transitions

Complex systems, such as the earths climate, coral reefs, oceans, and social-economic systems, often react in a surprising way to gradual change. If conditions change gradually, the system may seem to respond little, until a critical tipping point is reached, after which the system may collapse completely. After such collapse, the original state of the system is notoriously hard to restore. Up till now, managers have found it very hard to predict such catastrophic transition without a thorough knowledge of the underlying mechanisms. Egbert van Nes and Marten Scheffer analyzed various models and came to the conclusion that there is a simpler way to predict a catastrophic transition. In their work, which appears in the June issue of The American Naturalist, they show that, after small disturbances, the system will recover much slower if a collapse is near. They argue that such slower recovery can serve as an early warning signal for upcoming shifts. In practice the recovery rate can be determined from small experiments or by analyzing the natural variations in a time series.


'"/>

Contact: Patricia Morse
pmorse@press.uchicago.edu
773-702-0446
University of Chicago Press Journals
22-May-2007


Page: 1

Related biology news :

1. Every moment counts: Predicting treatment responses earlier for brain tumor patients
2. Predicting PET imagings future: Diagnosing and treating diseases ASAP
3. Predicting species abundance in the face of habitat loss
4. Predicting success
5. Predicting chemotherapy outcome
6. Predicting the future: Mirror neurons reflect the intentions of others
7. Predicting infection risk of mosquito-borne disease
8. Virus has catastrophic affect on red squirrels, research shows
9. American and Dutch experts to discuss risk of catastrophic levee failure in California
10. Scientists find evidence of catastrophic sand avalanches, sea level changes in Gulf of Mexico
11. Scripps scientists find potential for catastrophic shifts in Pacific ecosystems

Post Your Comments:
*Name:
*Comment:
*Email:


(Date:6/20/2016)... DALLAS , June 20, 2016 ... criminal justice technology solutions for public safety, investigation, ... by the prisons involved, it has secured the ... Corrections (DOC) facilities for Managed Access Systems (MAS) ... (4) additional facilities to be installed by October, ...
(Date:6/7/2016)... , June 7, 2016  Syngrafii Inc. ... a business relationship that includes integrating Syngrafii,s patented ... branch project. This collaboration will result in greater ... the credit union, while maintaining existing document workflow ... http://photos.prnewswire.com/prnh/20160606/375871LOGO ...
(Date:6/1/2016)... YORK , June 1, 2016 ... Technology in Election Administration and Criminal Identification to Boost ... to a recently released TechSci Research report, " Global ... By Region, Competition Forecast and Opportunities, 2011 - 2021", ... 24.8 billion by 2021, on account of growing security ...
Breaking Biology News(10 mins):
(Date:6/23/2016)... -- Andrew D Zelenetz , ... Published recently in Oncology & ... Andrew D Zelenetz , discusses the fact ... placing an increasing burden on healthcare systems worldwide, ... the patents on many biologics expiring, interest in ...
(Date:6/23/2016)... Connecticut (PRWEB) , ... June 23, 2016 , ... ... introduce a new line of intelligent tools designed, tuned and optimized exclusively for ... September 12–17 in Chicago. The result of a collaboration among several companies with ...
(Date:6/22/2016)... June 22, 2016 Research and Markets has ... report to their offering. ... 2014 from $29.3 billion in 2013. The market is expected to ... from 2015 to 2020, increasing from $50.6 billion in 2015 to ... forecasts during the forecast period (2015 to 2020) are discussed. As ...
(Date:6/22/2016)... --  ViaCyte, Inc. , a privately-held regenerative medicine company ... for the treatment of diabetes in clinical-stage development, today ... 2016, the Global Stem Cell Event, is taking place ... Francisco.    ... Focus Session: Tools for Basic and Applied Stem Cell ...
Breaking Biology Technology:
Cached News: