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Study considers auto industry and consumer behavior in reducing greenhouse gas emissions

Tougher environmental policies aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions from the U.S. transportation sector will affect more than the production of cars and light trucks. Changes throughout the automotive industry will impact consumer behavior and the environment in uncertain ways.

In an effort to predict the ripple effect of environmental policies, researchers James Winebrake, from Rochester Institute of Technology, and Steven Skerlos, from the University of Michigan, are creating a computer-based program for policymakers and analysts to evaluate the impact of future scenarios.

Funded by $2 million from the National Science Foundation's Materials Use: Science, Engineering and Society (MUSES) program, the five-year study will build and link computer models to understand the consumer and industry response to policy decisions, and how the state of the market impacts the environment. The software program will enable analysts to predict the complicated market dynamic between consumers and producers by constructing scenarios.

For instance, a scenario may consider an increase in the Corporate Average Fuel Economy standards, one of the major tools or regulations government can use to force car companies to produce cleaner, more efficient vehicles.

"For 20 years the standards have remained flat until Bush's recent small increase," says Winebrake, chair of Science Technology and Society/Public Policy at RIT.

He adds: "If the government passes higher CAFE standards, how will the auto industry respond to using new technology and producing new vehicles? How will consumers respond to the safety, performance and aesthetics of these new vehicles? How will those decisions play out in the market and with what environmental impact?"

These scenarios also will consider such variables as the amount of production material necessary to meet new regulations as well as the environmental impact associated with the whole production o
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Contact: Susan Gawlowicz
smguns@rit.edu
585-475-5061
Rochester Institute of Technology
11-Sep-2006


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