Today, the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) announces the launch of a new two-year research initiative into the demographic trends which could transform the face of Scotland. Funded in partnership with the Scottish Executive, this 300,000 research investment will investigate three key aspects of Scotland's demography: migration, fertility and the impact of an ageing population.

Scotland's population is changing and this poses critical challenges for policymakers. The key demographic trend is that Scotland's population is shrinking and ageing. Existing evidence (see notes to editors, 1) suggests that:

• If current trends continue, Scotland's population will fall below 5 million in 2017 and reach 4.6 million by 2042. This means, in percentage terms, the population will be about 10 per cent smaller in 2042 than at present.

• Scotland's population is not only ageing but is expected to age rapidly over the next few decades. The number of people aged 65 and older is expected to rise by about 61 per cent from 819,000 in 2003 to 1.3 million by 2042. The number aged under 15 is expected to fall by about 30 per cent from 943,000 in 2003 to 677,000 by 2042.

• The number of babies born each year in Scotland has fallen substantially over the last 40 years. Just 51,270 births were registered in Scotland in 2002, the lowest figure since civil registration began in 1855: 24 per cent less than in 1991 and 43 per cent less than in 1951. Although the number of babies born in the last two years has increased (provisional figures for 2004 show 53,957), the Scottish fertility rate is still at a historically low level. It is still too early to tell whether this recent increase will be sustained in the long-term.

• Fertility is lower in Scotland than in England, Wales and Northern Ireland. Fertility is also lower than in any of the English regions, including its near neighbour, the North East of England. Scotland's level
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Contact: Becky Gammon
becky.gammon@esrc.ac.uk
44-179-341-3122
Economic & Social Research Council
16-Apr-2005


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