HIV/AIDS impact on education intensifies economi...( uption of the school system has a relat...),Health

uption of the school system has a relatively minor effect on the population's education level, Arndt said. But because the time span between exposure and death from AIDS is estimated to be nearly a decade, disruptions of the system over this length of time could lead to a significant reduction in the education level of Mozambique's population. Indeed, UNAIDS and the World Health Organization (WHO) estimate that in 1999 alone, so many teachers in sub-Saharan Africa died in the epidemic that 860,000 children were deprived of an education.

In his paper, Arndt cautions that though "economics is about the welfare of people the science of economics is poorly prepared to appropriately measure welfare in the context of a pandemic that reduces life expectancy by 15 years in the space of about one decade." In Mozambique, life expectancy is now less than 40 years, according to UNAIDS and WHO.

In summarizing his report's findings, Arndt said that by 2010 Mozambique's economy will be between 16 percent and 23 percent smaller than it would be if not affected by AIDS, and the per capita Gross Domestic Product growth will be between 0.3 percent and 1 percent lower. The slowdown is due to reduced productivity growth, reduced population growth, reduced human capital accumulation and reduced physical capital accumulation.

Arndt makes three major policy recommendations based on his analysis:

• Mozambique should take aggressive action to limit the scope, duration and economic impacts of the AIDS epidemic.

• The nation should take steps to maintain school enrollment rates, graduation rates and quality of education.

• Mozambique's economic planners should reduce their projections of a rapid population growth, as those forecasts are unlikely to be realized due to the epidemic.

The World Bank, which funded Arndt's research, provides financial assistance to more than 100 developing nations
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Contact: Susan A. Steeves
ssteeves@aes.purdue.edu
765-496-7481
Purdue University
5-Feb-2002

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