1,303 positive cases of BSE have been confirmed in ROI so far. Based on these figures, the total number of BSE-infected animals in ROI has been estimated at 22,000. This compares with an estimated 827,500 cases in the UK.
To date there have been 137 confirmed cases of vCJD in the UK, and only one in ROI. As it is not possible to construct estimates of future epidemics from this case alone, the researchers, from Beaumont Hospital, Dublin and Imperial College, London, calculated the exposure of the Irish population to BSE infected beef, relative to the exposure of people in the UK. This enabled them to use the comprehensive data on BSE and vCJD in the UK, where the epidemic has peaked, to calculate the future risk to the people of Ireland.
2.5% of the ROI population were exposed to the same risk of eating BSE-infected beef as other UK residents, as they were living in the UK during the 'at-risk' period (1980-1996).
Those who stayed at home were exposed to BSE via BSE-infected domestic beef products or products imported to Ireland from the UK. The researchers used information from UK Customs & Excise and the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) to calculate that the Irish consumed 0.26% of the beef products produced in the UK (c. 2,148 BSE infected cattle). They also discovered that only 10% of the annual Irish Beef Industry output was consumed in Ireland (c. 2,200 infected cattle).
By plugging these figures into a statistical model based on the annual number of cases of vCJD seen in the UK and the relative population sizes of the UK and ROI, the scientists calculate
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BioMed Central
25-Nov-2003