How should countries best respond to a flu...( ion rates. With current manufacturing m...),Health

ion rates. With current manufacturing methods, this means vaccines would need to be stockpiled in advance. This could significantly reduce the numbers infected even if the vaccine wasn't perfectly matched to the virus which emerges. A vaccine stockpile sufficient to vaccinate 20 percent of the population could reduce case numbers by a third if children were vaccinated within a few weeks of the start of a pandemic. Combining pre-vaccination with household prophylaxis could reduce case numbers by two thirds.

The supercomputer model simulated pandemic spread in Great Britain and the United States, using detailed data on population density and demographics, together with data on human travel patterns.

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Contact: Tony Stephenson
at.stephenson@imperial.ac.uk
44-207-594-6712
Imperial College London
26-Apr-2006

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