The New York Mets have a 60 percent chance of taking the the National League Championship series, with a 24 percent chance of clinching the deal in six games, said Bruce Bukiet. Bukiet, an associate professor of mathematical sciences at New Jersey Institute of Technology (NJIT), offers new picks for winning teams based on a mathematical model he developed in 2000.
More picks include:
- A 40 percent probability of the St. Louis Cardinals making it to the World Series with a 19 percent chance of winning in seven games.
- In the American League, the Yankee-slaying Detroit Tigers have a 58 percent chance of prevailing over the Oakland A's. The Tigers' most likely winning scenario is a 19 percent chance of winning in six games, while Oakland's most likely winning scenario is their 15.5 percent chance of taking the series in seven games.
Bukiet achieves results by using his mathematical models on realistic line-ups for each team and game. For updates on the progress of the series, visit http://m.njit.edu/~bukiet/playoffs.htm).
"Anything can happen in a short series," added Bukiet. "We saw that in the division series Jeff Weaver yielded no runs for the first time in over 30 outings. In addition, the Yankees were held scoreless for 21 consecutive innings."
Operations Research published Bukiet's mathematical model on which his predictions are based. His model computes the probability of a team winning a game against another team with given hitters, bench, starting pitcher, relievers and home field advantage. Bukiet has appeared on CNN Headline News, the Jerusalem Post and Fox Radio's Roger Hedgecock Show, KOGO, San Diego. Interview Bukiet in person at 518 Cullimore Hall, by telephone (973-596-8392) or email email@example.com.
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