HOME >> MEDICINE >> NEWS
Predicting danger of flu pandemic rests on differences in affected population, says O.R. Forum

In the study, Simple Models of Influenza Progression Within a Heterogeneous Population, Dr. Richard C. Larson, a former president of INFORMS and a professor at MIT, discusses the importance of forecasting and ultimately limiting the spread of disease while taking into account the different infection rates among those who might contract the disease.

We allow for socially active people who interact with many other people on a given day, and we allow for relatively inactive people who interact with few others, he writes. We provide for highly susceptible people who are more likely to become infected once exposed to the virus, and we include those who are less susceptible. In a similar vein, we allow for highly contagious as well as less contagious infected persons.

The reasoning behind these assumptions is that heterogeneity across the population in these attributes may affect in first-order ways the manner in which the disease propagates and, consequently, the manner in which we should address mitigation measures.

The paper introduces operations researchers to the need for new mathematical modeling of an influenza pandemic and its control. Operations research is the application of advanced analytical methods to help make better decisions.

The paper also explores social distancing as a disease progression control method. Social distancing refers to steps aimed at reducing the frequency and intensity of daily contact among people. One example of social distancing is telecommuting to work rather than riding public transportation.

Two key findings are (1) early exponential growth of the disease may be dominated by susceptible people who have a great deal of contact with others and may not be indicative of the general populations risk of infection to the disease, and (2) social distancing with accompanying hygienic steps may be effective nonmedical ways to limit and perhaps even eradicate the disease.


'"/>

Contact: Barry List
barry.list@informs.org
443-757-3560
Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences
18-Jun-2007


Page: 1

Related medicine news :

1. Predicting the quality of life for older adults
2. Predicting the risk of rheumatoid arthritis for early arthritis patients
3. Predicting an answer to the threat of flooding
4. Predicting outcomes for kidney transplant patients
5. Predicting successful outcomes in living-donor liver transplants
6. Predicting cardiovascular problems in liver transplant patients
7. Predicting the risk of death in patients with known coronary artery disease
8. Predicting the future of primary care in England
9. Predicting the outcome of drug-induced liver disease
10. Predicting serious cardiac outcomes
11. MRI finds breast cancer before it becomes dangerous

Post Your Comments:
*Name:
*Comment:
*Email:


(Date:9/1/2020)... ... September 01, 2020 , ... KitoTech Medical, a ... note financing, which will be used to accelerate the commercialization of its microMend® ... the company will continue to expand its customer base of healthcare systems as ...
(Date:8/31/2020)... ... August 31, 2020 , ... The Lymphoma ... funding innovative lymphoma research and serving the lymphoma community through a comprehensive series ... Anniversary of Blood Cancer Awareness Month (BCAM) and its international Light it ...
(Date:8/31/2020)... ... August 31, 2020 , ... Colorado ... through high-quality, career-relevant, and affordable online education – is proud to announce its ... Among the first of its kind in the nation, the 60-credit hour program ...
(Date:8/31/2020)... PASADENA, Calif. (PRWEB) , ... August 31, 2020 ... ... and leadership experience working, both directly with persons with autism and other developmental ... clinical expertise includes early intervention, parent education, adolescents with autism, school consultation, and ...
(Date:8/28/2020)... RANCH, Calif. (PRWEB) , ... August 28, 2020 ... ... cover a one-year subscription to a customized Lighthouse Health & Wellness mobile ... generous support of this project. Motorola Solutions Foundation awards grants each year to ...
Breaking Medicine News(10 mins):
(Date:8/27/2020)... FLINT, Mich. (PRWEB) , ... August 27, 2020 , ... The flu season is right ... need to get well equipped with all the necessary measures before it begins to harbor ... is also increasing, and it is leaving a huge impact on our lives. Hence it ...
(Date:8/26/2020)... ... August 26, 2020 , ... ScripHessco has ... Injuries. The infographic breaks down ways that chiropractors can help heal sports injuries ... to ScripHessco “Athletes have an unusual amount of pressure and stress on their ...
(Date:8/26/2020)... ... ... As the U.S. struggles in its 6th month of fighting Covid-19, Americans ... mask, keep your distance, wash your hands. Prevention is the best tool for now. ... “How much better it is to prevent disease than to cure it.” , Part ...
Breaking Medicine Technology:
Cached News: