HOME >> MEDICINE >> NEWS
Prediction markets accurately forecast influenza activity

Influenza experts have borrowed a page from economists, creating a futures market for influenza activity that predicted outbreaks two to four weeks in advance. The influenza prediction market is presented in the Jan. 15 issue of Clinical Infectious Diseases.

Influenza outbreaks happen every year, but when they hit and how severe they are varies. Knowing the timing and severity of an outbreak would give public health workers time to prepare and to notify the public to get their influenza vaccinations.

In a prediction market, people with information about a future event buy and sell shares based on what they believe the likelihood of that event will be. For instance, if a health care worker started seeing more cases of influenza in her clinic, she would buy shares representing increased levels of flu in the coming weeks and sell shares representing decreased activity. The prices at which these shares trade reflect the group's consensus on the future event. Prediction markets have accurately forecast the outcomes of a wide range of future events including presidential elections, Oscar nominees, and the Federal Reserve's decisions about interest rates.

"For decades, farmers have used futures markets to make decisions about what crops to plant," says Philip Polgreen, MD, of the University of Iowa. "We're just borrowing that technology to help people in public health and health care make decisions about the future."

"Many health care workers possess current information that could be used to predict future infectious disease trends," explains Dr. Polgreen. But there is no mechanism to gather that data and digest it quickly enough to make it useful. "Prediction markets provide a way to collect and analyze information in real time in an easy-to-interpret graphical format," Dr. Polgreen says.

Dr. Polgreen and his collaborators set up a "flu market" for the 2004-05 influenza season in the state of Iowa. Sixty-one health c
'"/>

Contact: Steve Baragona
sbaragona@idsociety.org
703-299-0412
Infectious Diseases Society of America
21-Dec-2006


Page: 1 2

Related medicine news :

1. Simple system accurately predicts weight-loss surgery risk
2. Prematurity more accurately predicted by advances in proteomic technology
3. Workers compensation ratings dont accurately predict disabilities
4. Hospital performance measures may not accurately reflect quality of care or predict patient outcomes
5. New GreeneChip identifies multiple pathogens rapidly and accurately
6. GreeneChip -- New diagnostic tool that rapidly and accurately identifies multiple pathogens
7. Inexpensive test detects H5N1 infections quickly and accurately
8. High-resolution CT accurately diagnoses shin splints
9. Magic formula accurately predicts fracture risk in osteoporotic women
10. Concussion in athletes: Can they accurately evaluate their own condition?
11. MRI more accurately determines cancer spread into breast ducts

Post Your Comments:
*Name:
*Comment:
*Email:
TAG: Prediction markets accurately forecast influenza activity

(Date:10/20/2014)... New York, NY (PRWEB) October 20, 2014 ... City based non-profit organization that helps New Yorkers ... lasting, positive changes toward health, housing, recovery and ... who have transformed the local community through their ... Managing Director, Marc Shapses , has been ...
(Date:10/20/2014)... hc1.com today announced the launch of ... enables healthcare organizations of all sizes to immediately ... management (“CRM”) solution. , Designed from the ground ... healthcare industry, the hc1 Healthcare Relationship Cloud™ personalizes ... combining healthcare CRM, HIPAA-compliant collaboration, and real-time analytics ...
(Date:10/20/2014)... WA (PRWEB) October 20, 2014 My ... workflow management software application. The new module enables ... patients receive full life-cycle quality care. , This application ... others within their practice, attach a to-do item to ... fit, and even set up reoccurring reminders for follow-ups. ...
(Date:10/20/2014)... October 20, 2014 Myoderm ... as Assistant Director of their CentralSource ... managing the innovative turnkey drug sourcing, distribution, and ... brings over 12 years of industry experience, in ... at the peak of their international success to ...
(Date:10/20/2014)... Fort Collins, CO (PRWEB) October 20, 2014 ... platform, dGH assays are the only imaging assays ... data in a single test.  With these three ... in their ability to detect the widest range ... chromosomal translocations—mutations usually missed by other genomic tools, ...
Breaking Medicine News(10 mins):Health News:Savills Studley's Marc Shapses To Be Honored as 2014 "Positive Changemaker" by ASCNYC 2Health News:Savills Studley's Marc Shapses To Be Honored as 2014 "Positive Changemaker" by ASCNYC 3Health News:Healthcare Relationship Management (HRM) Leader hc1.com® Launches hc1® Quick Start™ 2Health News:My Clients Plus Announces New Workflow Management Software 2Health News:Myoderm Hires Matthew Voicheck to Lead Turnkey Drug Sourcing Service 2Health News:KromaTiD Launches Genome Screening and Discovery Services 2Health News:KromaTiD Launches Genome Screening and Discovery Services 3
(Date:10/17/2014)... 2014  Training market researchers to spot and ... in today,s highly competitive global marketplace. As resources ... effectively and efficiently produce high performing analysts, regardless ... Effective training programs can help these ... internal clients by developing analysts who can drive ...
(Date:10/17/2014)... -- Research and Markets  has announced the ... of China Dialysis Market, 2014-2018" report to ... 2013 version, this update Report provides detailed analysis ... the relevant effect in recent three years, and ... it analyzes Chinese private-owned hemodialysis services. In the ...
(Date:10/17/2014)... BALTIMORE, Md. , Oct. 17, 2014 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ ... Center for Medical Technology Policy: The ... from the FDA, public and private payers, medical ... representatives, clinicians, and other experts January 12, 2015 ... effectiveness and value of weight loss treatments.  Participants ...
Breaking Medicine Technology:Effective Training Programs for Market Research Groups can Boost Overall Organizational Success 2Research and Development Prospect of China Dialysis Market, 2014-2018 2Research and Development Prospect of China Dialysis Market, 2014-2018 3Green Park Collaborative to Discuss Comparative Effectiveness and Value of Weight Loss Treatments 2
Cached News: