HOME >> MEDICINE >> NEWS
Prediction markets accurately forecast influenza activity

Influenza experts have borrowed a page from economists, creating a futures market for influenza activity that predicted outbreaks two to four weeks in advance. The influenza prediction market is presented in the Jan. 15 issue of Clinical Infectious Diseases.

Influenza outbreaks happen every year, but when they hit and how severe they are varies. Knowing the timing and severity of an outbreak would give public health workers time to prepare and to notify the public to get their influenza vaccinations.

In a prediction market, people with information about a future event buy and sell shares based on what they believe the likelihood of that event will be. For instance, if a health care worker started seeing more cases of influenza in her clinic, she would buy shares representing increased levels of flu in the coming weeks and sell shares representing decreased activity. The prices at which these shares trade reflect the group's consensus on the future event. Prediction markets have accurately forecast the outcomes of a wide range of future events including presidential elections, Oscar nominees, and the Federal Reserve's decisions about interest rates.

"For decades, farmers have used futures markets to make decisions about what crops to plant," says Philip Polgreen, MD, of the University of Iowa. "We're just borrowing that technology to help people in public health and health care make decisions about the future."

"Many health care workers possess current information that could be used to predict future infectious disease trends," explains Dr. Polgreen. But there is no mechanism to gather that data and digest it quickly enough to make it useful. "Prediction markets provide a way to collect and analyze information in real time in an easy-to-interpret graphical format," Dr. Polgreen says.

Dr. Polgreen and his collaborators set up a "flu market" for the 2004-05 influenza season in the state of Iowa. Sixty-one health c
'"/>

Contact: Steve Baragona
sbaragona@idsociety.org
703-299-0412
Infectious Diseases Society of America
21-Dec-2006


Page: 1 2

Related medicine news :

1. Simple system accurately predicts weight-loss surgery risk
2. Prematurity more accurately predicted by advances in proteomic technology
3. Workers compensation ratings dont accurately predict disabilities
4. Hospital performance measures may not accurately reflect quality of care or predict patient outcomes
5. New GreeneChip identifies multiple pathogens rapidly and accurately
6. GreeneChip -- New diagnostic tool that rapidly and accurately identifies multiple pathogens
7. Inexpensive test detects H5N1 infections quickly and accurately
8. High-resolution CT accurately diagnoses shin splints
9. Magic formula accurately predicts fracture risk in osteoporotic women
10. Concussion in athletes: Can they accurately evaluate their own condition?
11. MRI more accurately determines cancer spread into breast ducts

Post Your Comments:
*Name:
*Comment:
*Email:
TAG: Prediction markets accurately forecast influenza activity

(Date:1/22/2015)... U.S. Pharmacopeial Convention is pleased to announce that Gigi ... North Carolina State’s College of Veterinary Medicine has been ... Distinguished Volunteer Service—the organization’s highest award. , Since ... experts to direct its work to improve the health ...
(Date:1/22/2015)... (PRWEB) January 23, 2015 LunaDress, with its ... the fashion industry. Now, the business is showing its latest ... women’s dresses. , According to the company’s CEO, all the ... now offered with big discounts, up to 80% off. All ...
(Date:1/22/2015)... Hawley, PA (PRWEB) January 22, 2015 Woodloch ... Pocono Mountains, has been selected by TripAdvisor as the number ... and the 6th best in the world for their annual ... online travel community . The website is home to ...
(Date:1/22/2015)... Glendale, AZ (PRWEB) January 22, 2015 Padre ... a long supporter of Pro Player Health Alliance ... with Padre Murphy's in getting everyone, including NFL greats, treated ... one of the leading groups supporting the cause in the ...
(Date:1/22/2015)... 2015 The Incredible Bulk is a revolutionary ... increase lean muscle by up to 30lbs in less than ... of HealthyandFitZone.com’s Stan Stevenson, prompting an investigative review. , “Our ... step-by-step, scientific diet formula that allows the body to pack ...
Breaking Medicine News(10 mins):Health News:Gigi Davidson, Pioneer in Veterinary Pharmacy and Leader in Pharmacy Compounding, honored with USP’s Beal Award for Dedication to Public Health 2Health News:Gigi Davidson, Pioneer in Veterinary Pharmacy and Leader in Pharmacy Compounding, honored with USP’s Beal Award for Dedication to Public Health 3Health News:Gigi Davidson, Pioneer in Veterinary Pharmacy and Leader in Pharmacy Compounding, honored with USP’s Beal Award for Dedication to Public Health 4Health News:LunaDress Shows The Latest Styles Of Wedding Dresses In 2015 2Health News:TripAdvisor Names Woodloch Pines Best Hotel for Families in America 2Health News:TripAdvisor Names Woodloch Pines Best Hotel for Families in America 3Health News:Padre Murphy's Holds NFL Retired Players Association Party Star Studded Event With Bud Light and Pro Player Health Alliance Sponsoring 2Health News:Padre Murphy's Holds NFL Retired Players Association Party Star Studded Event With Bud Light and Pro Player Health Alliance Sponsoring 3Health News:The Incredible Bulk: Review Examining Ben Pakulski’s Brand New Bulking Muscle Building Diet Program Released 2
(Date:1/23/2015)... TAMPA, Fla. , Jan. 23, 2015  iMD Companies, Inc. ... plan to increase market share and grab a foothold in ... with influence, production capabilities and a presence in the sector, ... them facilitate the growth of hemp and medical marijuana, iMD ...
(Date:1/23/2015)... LAS VEGAS , Jan. 23, 2015 Cord Blood ... CBAI ) ("CBAI" or the "Company")  filed a Preliminary Proxy ... ( www.sec.gov ) today, and provides an update for shareholders ... authorized shares is requested. Dear Shareholders, ...
(Date:1/23/2015)... MONMOUTH JUNCTION, N.J. , Jan. 23, 2015 ... immunotherapy company commercializing its CytoSorb® extracorporeal cytokine adsorber ... surgery patients, announced the receipt of $385,642, net ... approved participant of the Technology Business Tax Certificate ...
Breaking Medicine Technology:iMD Companies Poised to Make Impact in Multi-Billion Dollar Medical Marijuana Sector With Recent Investments and Strategic Partnerships 2Cord Blood America Announces Preliminary Proxy Filing and Details Why a "YES" Vote to Increase Authorized Shares Is Requested 2Cord Blood America Announces Preliminary Proxy Filing and Details Why a "YES" Vote to Increase Authorized Shares Is Requested 3Cord Blood America Announces Preliminary Proxy Filing and Details Why a "YES" Vote to Increase Authorized Shares Is Requested 4CytoSorbents Receives $385,000 in Non-Dilutive Funding from the New Jersey Technology Business Tax Certificate Transfer Program 2CytoSorbents Receives $385,000 in Non-Dilutive Funding from the New Jersey Technology Business Tax Certificate Transfer Program 3
Cached News: