The avian flu strain represents a particular threat because it is so deadly, said Neil M. Ferguson, D.Phil., a computational biologist at Imperial College in London and lead author of the Nature paper. "A large percentage of animals and people infected with this virus have died," he explained. "The consequences of an H5N1-based pandemic could be catastrophic."
With bird flu continuing to spread in Southeast Asia, the MIDAS network decided to model a hypothetical human outbreak of H5N1 in this region.
"The pressing questions are if and how we can contain an outbreak of avian flu at the source before it becomes a pandemic," said Ira M. Longini, Jr., Ph.D., a biostatistician at the Emory University Rollins School of Public Health in Atlanta and lead author of the Science paper.
To enhance reliability, both models were based on detailed data for Thailand, such as population densities, household sizes, age distribution, and distances traveled to work. The models also included information about the flu virus, such as the possible contagiousness of an infected person. Ferguson and Longini noted that actual contagiousness would not be known before an outbreak.
Although the models differed in the specific scenarios they simulated and the intervention strategies they tested, the general conclusions were similar and confirm current knowledge of how diseases spread: Preventing a pandemic would require a combination of carefully implemented public health measures introduced soon after the first cases appear.
The model presented in Nature simulated 85 million people living in Thailand and bordering regions of neighbori
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Contact: Emily Carlson
carlsone@nigms.nih.gov
301-496-7301
NIH/National Institute of General Medical Sciences
3-Aug-2005