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While the researchers said that implementing such a combination of approaches would be challenging and require a coordinated, international response, they offered this good news: The models show that containing an avian flu pandemic at its source is feasible.

Because computer models cannot capture all the complexities of real communities and real outbreaks, the MIDAS researchers will continue to refine their simulations and test different scenarios as new information becomes available. By developing a collection of models, they can compare and contrast different interventions, leading to more accurate predictions.

Other researchers involved in this work represent Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health; the University of Hong Kong; the Ministry of Health in Thailand; and INSERM, the French National Institute of Health and Medical Research.

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Contact: Emily Carlson
carlsone@nigms.nih.gov
301-496-7301
NIH/National Institute of General Medical Sciences
3-Aug-2005